What Is the Availability Heuristic?

The availability heuristic is a type of mental shortcut that involves estimating the probability or risk of something based on how easily examples come to mind. If we can think of many examples, then we assume it happens frequently.

Consider the following example of the availability heuristic: Which job do you think is more dangerous—being a police officer or a logger? While high-profile police shootings might lead you to think that cops have the most hazardous job, statistics show that loggers are likelier to die on the job than cops.

When making this type of judgment about relative risk or danger, our brains rely on several strategies to make quick decisions. The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that helps you make fast, but sometimes incorrect, assessments.

There are all kinds of mental shortcuts, but a common one involves relying on information that comes to mind quickly. This is known as "availability." If you can quickly think of multiple examples of something happening—such as police shootings or airplane crashes—you will believe it is more common.

How the Availability Heuristic Works

When you are trying to make a decision, a number of related events or situations might immediately spring to the forefront of your thoughts. As a result, you might judge that those events are more frequent or probable than others. You give greater credence to this information and tend to overestimate the probability and likelihood of similar things happening in the future.

For example, after seeing several news reports about car thefts, you might make a judgment that vehicle theft is much more common than it really is in your area. This type of availability heuristic can be helpful and important in decision-making. When faced with a choice, we often lack the time or resources to investigate in greater depth.

How It Can Be Helpful

This can be helpful when you are trying to make a decision or judgment about the world around you. For example, would you say that there are more words in the English language that begin with the letter t or with the letter k?

You might try to answer this question by thinking of as many words as you can that begin with each letter. Since you can think of more words that begin with t, you might then believe that more words begin with this letter than with k. In this instance, the availability heuristic has led you to a correct answer.

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Examples of the Availability Heuristic

Here are a few scenarios where this could play out in your day-to-day life.

• After reading an article about lottery winners, you overestimate your likelihood of winning the jackpot. You start spending more money than you should each week on lottery tickets.
• After seeing news reports about people losing their jobs, you might start to believe that you are in danger of being laid off. You begin lying awake in bed each night worrying that you are about to be fired.
• After seeing news stories about high-profile child abductions, you believe such tragedies are quite common. You refuse to let your children play outside alone and never let them leave your sight.
• After seeing several television programs on shark attacks, you begin to think such incidences are relatively common. When you go on vacation, you refuse to swim in the ocean because you believe the probability of a shark attack is high.

In another example, researchers have found that people who are more easily able to recall seeing antidepressant advertising were also more likely to give high estimates about the prevalence of depression.

What Causes the Availability Heuristic

The availability heuristic stems from how the brain works. Because our attention and information-processing power is limited, we have to rely on shortcuts to help make understanding the world a little faster and easier.

The trade-off for this ability to make snap judgments is that sometimes our assessments and decisions are inaccurate.

Excessive media coverage can cause this, but sometimes, the novelty or drama surrounding an event can cause it to become more available in your memory. Because the event is so unusual, it takes on greater significance, which leads you to incorrectly assume that the event is much more common than it is.

Availability Heuristic vs. Representativeness Heuristic

The brain uses all types of mental shortcuts, and some of them have a few things in common and may sometimes be confused with one another. The availability heuristic, for example, is sometimes confused with what is known as the representativeness heuristic.

The representativeness heuristic is a shortcut in which we estimate the probability of an effect based on how well the current example matches an example we already have in mind. For example, we might base our impressions of a person in a professional role based on the representation of that role we already have in our mind. 

So while representativeness relies on comparing an event to our existing expections, availability relies on basing these estimates on how readily we can call similar events to mind.

Availability Heuristic and Incorrect Decisions

The term was first coined in 1973 by Nobel-prize-winning psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. They suggested that the availability heuristic occurs unconsciously and operates under the principle that "if you can think of it, it must be important."

Common Pitfalls of Availability Heuristic

Like other heuristics, the availability heuristic can be useful at times. However, it can lead to problems and errors. Reports of child abductions, airplane accidents, and train derailments often lead people to believe that such events are much more typical than they truly are.

For example, after seeing a movie about a nuclear disaster, you might become convinced that a nuclear war or accident is highly likely. After witnessing a car overturned on the side of the road, you might believe that your own likelihood of getting in an accident is very high.

Plus, the longer you stay preoccupied with the event, the more available it will be in your mind, and the more probable you will believe it to be.

How to Avoid the Availability Heuristic

The availability heuristic is an inherent part of how the brain works. It tends to occur automatically without any effort. While being more aware of this heuristic may help you better see how it might affect your choices, experts suggest that awareness of mental biases isn't enough to overcome them.

While there's no way to prevent it from happening, there are strategies that you can use to help make more informed decisions. 

• Give yourself time: Instead of making snap decisions, try to give yourself time to examine the evidence and reach a conclusion.
• Seek out other information: If you only pay attention to information that confirms what you already think (an example of confirmation bias), you may be more likely to rely on readily available examples. Instead, seek out information that might challenge your assumptions.
• Look at statistics: If you want a more reliable estimate, gather statistical information that gives a clearer view of the big picture. Relying on singular anecdotes can lead to inaccuracy, but looking at the overall numbers can give you a better view of the probability something might happen.
  
• Keep records: If you know you will be basing a decision on a specific type of information (such as promoting employees based on their performance), keep records to track such information rather than relying on memory.

A Word From Verywell

Heuristics play a vital role in how we make decisions and act upon information in the world around us. The availability heuristic can be a helpful tool, but it is also important to remember that it can sometimes lead to incorrect assessments.

Just because something looms large in your memory does not necessarily mean it is more common, so incorporating other tools and strategies into your decision-making process can help you make more accurate choices.